Helmet explodes!Can the increase in raw materials breaking the thousand yuan replace the melt-blown material into a new favorite?
Since last Saturday, the helmet has become a hot word, dominating the circle of friends, and once more heated than the mask.The Ministry of Public Security ‘s Traffic Management Bureau has deployed “One Helmet, One Belt” safety guarding operations throughout the country, focusing on promoting and guiding motorcycle / electric vehicle riders to wear helmets.Many places said that from June 1 this year, the behavior of riding a motorcycle / electric vehicle without wearing a safety helmet will be strictly investigated.Affected by this, the people who did not buy helmets in the Air Force began to buy helmets through online and offline channels.Recently, the market demand for masks has skyrocketed, and the replacement of melt-blown materials in production materials has come into the public’s eyes. After the helmet became a hot word, the prices of raw materials ABS and EPS have also risen. Will these materials have the opportunity to replace melt-blown materials and become a tight chemicalmaterial?Helmet into hot words ABS rose more than 1,000 yuan / ton helmet into hot words, which production materials directly affect?According to the analysis of Jinlianchuang Chemical analyst Cui Jing to the sauna and Yewang, the commonly used shell materials are mainly ABS, PC / ABS, PC, glass fiber reinforced materials, carbon fiber composite materials, etc .; when the buffer layer encounters strong impactIt has a cushioning effect and is usually replaced by a material that can absorb collision energy, is non-toxic, harmless, sweat-absorbent, and breathable. Most of the cushioning layer uses foamed styrene (EPS) material.The most direct raw materials related to helmets, ABS and EPS, took the opportunity to rise.According to Jinlianchuang’s data, ABS’s rally is mad, and even the market is about to rise. Last weekend and early this week, market prices rose by 1,000-1500 yuan / ton, and individual brands rose by nearly 2,000 yuan / ton.In the range of 100-200 yuan / ton; at the same time, PS benefit followed the increase of 200-500 yuan / ton.Under the skyrocketing popularity of safety helmets, styrene futures surged on Monday, closing at 5,731 yuan / ton and closing prices at 5,699 yuan / ton, up 172 yuan / ton month-on-month, or 3%.At the same time, the spot market in East China closed at 5,430 yuan to 5,450 yuan / ton, an increase of 130 yuan / ton, exceeding the high point in early April.崔靖表示:“不可否认,周一的强势表现在很大程度上受到了‘一盔一带’政策的炒作提振,但日内原油盘中大涨亦带动了整体化工商品出现普涨,而且近期来自The strong performance on the cost side has also been an indispensable boost to the styrene price base.”The demand for raw materials is lower than the theoretical value. It is difficult to form a continuous push up. How long can the price of raw materials for power helmets rise?This relates to the actual demand for helmets.According to public data, in the past ten years, the local annual output of electric bicycles has basically been between 30 million and 35 million, and the number of electric bicycles in China will be close to 3 billion in 2019.”But some regions already have the policy of” one helmet and one belt “, and some companies have a policy of buying electric bicycles to give helmets. The actual demand for raw materials from helmets may be much lower than the theoretical value.”Cui Jing analysis said.Cui Jing further stated that if the demand for 100 million helmets is forecasted, according to the data of the top few merchants in Tmall sales, the weight of a single helmet is basically 0.5-0.7kg, equivalent to 3 ABS dosage.50,000-5 digits, equivalent to EPS consumption of 10,000-1.4, the total amount of styrene equivalent is 3.20,000-4.5.Although there have been speculations in some downstream models, it is undeniable that the actual demand for chain products accounts for a very small proportion, which is almost negligible.The performance of the styrene disk’s surge is mainly due to the release of bullish sentiment caused by the lack of momentum in the recent market continuous breakthrough.Recently, the speculation heat of masks has just passed, and the helmet speculation has reappeared, but relatively speaking, masks rely on domestic and international demand volume coupling, and the replacement frequency is higher. After the helmet shorts need to be purchased, the continuous purchase amount is insufficient, and the currentThere is no relevant national standard in the field of electric vehicle helmets, and the production of electric vehicle helmets cannot be standardized for the time being. The audience and demand are unmatched compared to masks.”And after there are more cases of excessive hoarding in the early stage, speculators are chasing high speculation or relatively rational, and they have insufficient influence on the supply and demand balance change of the downstream styrene industry, and it is difficult to form a continuous boost to the styrene disk.”Cui Jing said.Cui Jing believes that in terms of styrene alone, the recent recovery of domestic styrene load has risen to the highest level since the Spring Festival. At the same time, the arrival of imported cargo is normal, and the domestic trade is concentrated to supplement East China, and the terminal inventory is expected to rebound.The market is transitioning from a tight balance to a loose balance in the previous period, and there is still room for suppression of the market’s continued improvement.However, at the moment, the support from the upstream cost side is strong, and the downstream maintains high-load operation under the support of previous orders, especially the helmet heat gradually rises below the speculation vent. There are still short-term expectations of rising, which is bound to change the short-term styrene market.Help the price.Therefore, in terms of speaking, styrene is expected to maintain the trend of advancing price shocks, but it is relatively insufficient to continue to rise.”In a short period of time, the demand for helmets has increased, the price of helmets has risen, and the prices of raw materials ABS, PC and other products have increased.”However, the transition time is gradually returning to rationality, and the helmets have been replaced repeatedly and the market demand is not as large as masks. It is recommended to respond rationally and invest cautiously.Zhou Dongchao, an analyst of Jinlianchuang Plastics, expressed a similar view on Sauna and Yewang.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhang Shuxin Editor Li Weijia Proofreading Li Shihui